Today is the first day of the north Atlantic hurricane season. An above-normal hurricane season is predicted, according to the seasonal outlook issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. Hurricane season officially continues through Nov. 30.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, NOAA is predicting the following ranges this year:
•12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which
•6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including
•3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
The seasonal average is 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
“The United States was fortunate last year,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “Winds steered most of the season’s tropical storms and all hurricanes away from our coastlines. However we can’t count on luck to get us through this season. We need to be prepared, especially with this above-normal outlook.”
“In addition to multiple climate factors, seasonal climate models also indicate an above-normal season is likely, and even suggest we could see activity comparable to some of the active seasons since 1995,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
The seasonal outlook does not predict storm tracks, intensity or landfall potentials.
A slightly different forecast has been issued by Weather Services Interna tional, a Weather Channel company.
WSI predicts:
•15 named storms, of which
•8 could become hurricanes, including
•4 major hurricanes.
The WSI forecast is also higher than the long-term average.
Names for the 2011 hurricane season are: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince and Whitney.
